Live Crime Tracker Shows Major Crime Declines in First Half of 2024 with Local Variability
Using a sample of 49 American cities, both violent and property crime declined substantially in the first half of 2024 (January 1-June 30) compared with the same period in 2023.
CHICAGO, August 26, 2024 — Compared with the first six months of 2023, crime declined substantially in the first half of 2024, including declines of more than 22 percent in homicide, motor vehicle theft, and burglary, according to a new city-level analysis from NORC at the University of Chicago using novel data from a sample of 49 U.S. cities.
The data marks a continuation of the trend in declining crime that began in 2022 and, according to data from the FBI Uniform Crime Report, accelerated in 2023 and 2024. NORC data in the Live Crime Tracker shows that crime declines were statistically significant for burglary, larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and robbery. Substantial declines were observed in homicide and simple assault.
“The spike in crime during the pandemic has ended and fully reversed, and the crime decline appears to be accelerating,” said John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at NORC. “Using daily open data that is scraped from law enforcement agencies and government records in 49 cities and is publicly available on NORC’s Live Crime Tracker, we find a broad decline in crime.”
Within a substantial decline at the national level, NORC’s experts found that the crime decline was highly variable across U.S. cities.
“While the national picture is extremely positive, the experience of the residents of a particular city varies a lot, with some cities experiencing dramatic declines, while other cities remain close to 2023 crime levels,” Roman said. “These results highlight the need for timely, accurate crime statistics and the need to rapidly explore the causes of the crime decline so successful programs can be expanded and sustained. The pandemic crime spike has stopped and reversed, but we do not have a clear picture of what policies and programs are having the most impact.”
Average Incident Rates per 100k Residents by Type of Offense, First Six Months of 2023 and 2024
| 2023 Rate Per 100,000 | 2024 Rate Per 100,000 | Difference Per 100,000 | Percentage Change | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault (n=43) | 233.64 | 231.15 | 2.49 | -1.1% | 0.893 |
| Burglary (n=49) | 373.68 | 289.49 | -84.20 | -22.5% | 0.037 |
| Homicide Offenses (n=48) | 14.57 | 11.31 | -3.26 | -22.3% | 0.106 |
| Larceny/Theft Offenses (n=49) | 1,243.91 | 1,113.54 | -130.4 | -8.9% | 0.009 |
| Motor Vehicle Theft (n=46) | 622.62 | 485.32 | -137.3 | -22.1% | 0.005 |
| Robbery (n=49) | 112.40 | 97.12 | -15.28 | -13.6% | 0.039 |
| Sex Offenses (n=37) | 38.46 | 36.75 | -1.71 | -4.4% | 0.493 |
| Simple Assault (n=38) | 424.20 | 397.49 | -26.71 | -6.3% | 0.061 |
Source: Live Crime Tracker. https://livecrimetracker.norc.org/. Data from January 1-June 30, 2023 and January 1-June 30, 2024.
About NORC at the University of Chicago
NORC at the University of Chicago conducts research and analysis that decision-makers trust. As a nonpartisan research organization and a pioneer in measuring and understanding the world, we have studied almost every aspect of the human experience and every major news event for more than eight decades. Today, we partner with government, corporate, and nonprofit clients around the world to provide the objectivity and expertise necessary to inform the critical decisions facing society.
Contact: For more information, please contact Eric Young at NORC at young-eric@norc.org or (703) 217-6814 (cell).
About the Center on Public Safety & Justice
NORC’s Center on Public Safety & Justice develops actionable, evidence-based solutions to crime and victimization. The Center integrates our multidisciplinary team of experts in criminology, demography, economics, and public health and NORC’s industry-leading survey data collection capacity. Our holistic approach and longstanding partnerships with diverse local stakeholders in the hardest-hit communities allow us to identify programming innovations at every societal level.
About the Analysis and Live Crime Tracker
The researchers used publicly available data from local governments and police agencies to examine crime by category from January 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
The data reported in the report are in a minimally adjusted format. All data from the 49 U.S. cities available were normalized such that the eight crime categories included the same data across all cities.
The online tracker—livecrimetracker.norc.org—provides real-time data for approximately 50 U.S. cities in eight crime categories, including homicide, burglary, and aggravated assault. The Live Crime Tracker includes in-depth city crime profiles, interactive maps, and a daily crime tracker that allows users to analyze trends over time and make comparisons across locations. It should be noted that the tracker compiles data shared by local governments, and some of the data they report is incomplete.