Understanding America’s Voice: NORC’s Role in Election Research
Dan Gaylin
President & Chief Executive Officer
October 2024
In the midst of this election season, NORC CEO Dan Gaylin shares the history of the AP-NORC partnership and AP VoteCast itself: how it has evolved, what it is (and is not), and why it remains a powerful tool for understanding America's voice.
As folks reading this article most likely know, NORC is a non-partisan, independent, objective research institute. Our purpose is to create reliable and trustworthy data and analysis to inform the most important issues in society.
When it comes to U.S. elections, those dual aspects of the organization—objectivity/non-partisanship and creating trustworthy data and analysis—come together in an amazing way. Our election research, particularly through our partnership with The Associated Press (AP) and AP VoteCast, creates some of the most accessible, visible, and highest-quality election information available to the news media and the general public.
“Our election research creates some of the most accessible, visible, and highest-quality election information available to the news media and the general public.”
Since 2011, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has been a leader in providing deeper insights into American public opinion. Our collaboration avoids traditional horse race polling (which usually amounts to very basic “who’s up and who’s down” results) and focuses on the underlying attitudes and behaviors shaping our democracy.
The AP-NORC Center was established to counter the decline in substantive polling on critical issues such as the economy, health care, the environment, politics, and many others. Our surveys provide in-depth, unbiased research on a broad spectrum of highly topical subjects including, but going well beyond, politics and elections. Recent topics have included how people are using AI during the election, the war in the Middle East, and the impacts of extreme weather on people’s lives.
The AP-NORC partnership also holds personal significance for me as well. It began when Trevor Tompson, then the AP’s Global Director of Polling, and I collaborated to create this innovative alliance. It was Trevor’s brainchild, and together, along with top leadership at both organizations, we made it a reality at NORC.
As our collaboration evolved, we recognized that having Trevor here at NORC leading the NORC team would enhance our efforts. With the AP’s support, Trevor joined NORC, reinforcing our collaborative strength. This move underscores the importance of nurturing strong relationships and embracing innovative solutions. It’s a testament to how partnerships can evolve and grow stronger when we prioritize the mission and are willing to adapt our approach. Jenny Benz joined Trevor in leading the center as Deputy Director, bringing her deep methodological expertise and exceptional management skills to the endeavor.
We are enormously proud of our partnership with the AP and honored to be working with them so closely for over a decade. The two organizations are both passionately dedicated to objective, unbiased information. And we have very similar core values when it comes to excellence, innovation, and collaboration. This short video celebrating the 10-year anniversary of our partnership with the AP provides a comprehensive overview of our origins, partnership, and aspirations.
Central to our collaboration with the AP is AP VoteCast, an innovative survey of the entire American electorate. Unlike conventional polls, AP VoteCast aims to understand who voted, who didn’t vote, issues they care about, attitudes toward candidates, and ultimately why voters vote the way they do. NORC has conducted this poll for the AP and Fox News since 2018. This comprehensive approach allows us to capture a more nuanced picture of the American political landscape.
AP VoteCast’s methodology is designed to meet voters where they are—whether they cast their ballots in person, by mail, or not at all. This is important because many voters are not going to polling places in modern elections. In fact, in 2018, roughly 43 percent of voters cast their ballots before polls opened on Election Day—a number that grew to 70 percent in the 2020 presidential election during the height of the pandemic. In 2024, we expect about half of all votes will be cast early or absentee. AP VoteCast’s flexibility, combined with its scientifically rigorous methods, ensure its results reflect the true complexity of the American electorate, including representation of diverse demographic and political subgroups.
It’s important to clarify what AP VoteCast is and isn’t. It’s a powerful tool for analyzing voter attitudes and behaviors, including interviews of well over 100,000 registered voters in all 50 states. It forms part of the AP’s and other media organizations’ broader election night coverage. It is not an exit poll, as it is not based on in-person interviews conducted at polling locations. However, it is similar to an exit poll in that it provides very timely information on what voters are thinking. Essentially, election results tell you who won and lost, while AP VoteCast helps reveal the story behind these results. AP VoteCast provides journalists and researchers with rich data to try and explain the “why” behind election results.
At NORC, we’re committed to transparency in our methodology, as is the AP. After each election cycle, we rigorously review and refine our approach, constantly striving to improve the accuracy and depth of our insights. You can learn more about the methodology behind AP VoteCast on our website.
In today’s complex information landscape, the need for reliable, trustworthy election data has never been greater. NORC’s work, including AP VoteCast, plays a crucial role in providing this information. We encourage all Americans to engage with transparent, methodologically sound research as they seek to understand our democracy.
As we look ahead to the upcoming election, NORC remains dedicated to our mission of illuminating the voice of the American people. Through AP VoteCast and our other research initiatives, we continue to deepen our understanding of the diverse perspectives that shape our nation.
In the end, our goal is simple yet profound: to help America better understand itself. By providing accurate, comprehensive insights into voter behavior and attitudes, we contribute to a more informed and engaged citizenry. And that, I believe, is essential to a well functioning democracy.
