Ukrainians Are Increasingly Confident About Winning the War with Russia
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NORC Conducted a Series of Surveys Among Ukrainians
One might think that more than a year of death, depredation, and displacement would have dimmed Ukrainian hopes of successfully repelling Russia’s invasion. However, the latest NORC poll in Ukraine shows just the opposite. The April 2023 phone and online poll of 1,000 randomly selected Ukrainians—the third in a NORC series—revealed that 79 percent believe that their army will drive Russia out. This is a nine-point jump since the first poll, shortly after the war’s onset in 2022.
This growing confidence does not indicate that respondents were carefree. The survey found that over a third of those polled had lost their livelihood or income, and a similar number had been separated from family. One in ten had suffered the loss of a family member, health, appropriate medical attention, or property.
In addition, researchers discovered that 83 percent were concerned about fighting near nuclear zones and almost three of four (74 percent) worried about Russia deploying nuclear weapons. Notably, a vast majority (91 percent) of respondents were apprehensive about government corruption. They saw it as a major threat to Ukraine’s security, surpassed only by Russia’s invasion (97 percent).
The poll surveyed both Ukrainian-speaking and Russian-speaking Ukrainians.
“In times of crisis such as this one, people may be more reluctant to answer questions honestly when faced with an interviewer than during a self-administered questionnaire. To reduce bias, we conducted our Ukraine surveys both by phone and online.”
Surveys Show Agreement about EU, Differences Over NATO
However, there was a significant break between the two over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Only 51 percent of Russian speakers approved of pursuing NATO membership, unlike 81 percent of Ukrainian speakers. Russian-speaking respondents also expressed greater distrust of the Ukrainian government (22 percent) than their counterparts (12 percent.)
The April survey also investigated attitudes on nationalism and nationalist figures, an area of some divisiveness given Ukraine’s complicated history. For details on this and other findings, read the Ukraine Polls Issue Brief.
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